Wednesday, 23 March 2011

Obrigado, Portugal.

It would seem that the economically functioning part of the Eurozone (and no doubt those EU members with the common sense to have stayed out of the Euro as well) will have to put their hands in their pockets to support the economically destitute part again.

According to the BBC, the Portuguese parliament has voted down the budget of spending cuts and tax rises which the Prime Minister was kinda banking on. As a result he's resigned and there will likely be an election to follow.

I'm delighted, OK, it may cost us a few more million, but to be honest, we're so in hock at the moment, it doesn't really matter. But this will cause more discontent in Germany. They grumbled over Greece, there was even the stamping of feet over Ireland, who knows what reaction this will bring forth, as a bail-out is pretty much a certainty.

Empires tend to evolve into existence, and with a couple of exceptions, tend to fade away. Like all quick build projects, the EU was made of concrete, it is cracked and the water is seeping in. As soon as that happens the fate of the building is sealed. Portugal is another squall.

Portugal can be bailed out, it won't empty the coffers completely, but what it will do is increase the burden further. Portugal is in this mess because they've had the same problems as Greece and Ireland, but here's the important bit - not as bad. But as people ran from Greece to Ireland in panic over their government bonds, they've also run in panic from Ireland to Portugal. As soon as everyone breathes a sigh of relief over their Portuguese bonds, they'll go running to the next worst place, Spain. If Spain goes under, then all bets are off, there's no halfway practical way that Spain can be bailed out, there just isn't the money. The financial institutions will complain loudly enough, but what happens when the people on the street find their taxes put up to bail out a foreign power?

Van Remploy and Barroso can go on about nation states not existing as much as they like, but they'll find out how many people reject that notion when the industrialised workers of the Rhineland find their savings being raided again to bail out a load of Portuguese and Spanish fishermen.

We owe the Portuguese parliament a debt of thanks, because the only way we're going to get out of the EU anytime soon is via financial collapse, there's not a hope of us being given a referendum.

Of course, the irony is that the Portuguese have rejected it because the idea of the something for nothing, big brothers and sisters picking up the bill culture winking out of existence is just too horrible to consider. They honestly think that by rejecting the budget they're ensuring the continuation of the life they've become accustomed to over the last 21 years. They're not. The other irony is, that by rejecting the budget, they are ensuring their indebtedness to the machine. Had they passed it, following an extended period of discomfort they'd have probably come out the other side.

However, their actions may, just, provide our salvation.

1 comment:

nisakiman said...

I read an article a while back (forget where - financial pages of the DT maybe?), where the writer was saying that someone in the brussels inner sanctum suggested to him that the failure of countries like Greece, Ireland etc who couldn't work within the fiscal constraints of the Euro was a pre-ordained conclusion, a planned event.

Part of 'Le Grand Projet'.

They (Greece et al) have now lost their sovereignty and ther economy is run by the faceless ones in Brussels. In essence, they have become the first of the states of a Federal Europe. Gradually, all the other countries involved will be compromised one way or another by the Euro and be absorbed in ther entirety into the EUSSR.

That seems to be the plan, anyway...

Ok, taken the tinfoil hat off now...