Yes, but what is it you actually want?

I'm sat here watching Sky News' coverage of the latest strike cum tear-up in Greece. A crushing realisation has dawned upon me.

Firstly, this whole episode is self-perpetuating and can only end one way. One of two things will happen. The Greek parliament will vote through the latest austerity measures and get the bail out. People will keep striking, the goverment may come down, but it doesn't matter because whoever takes their place will be in exactly the same situation. It'll happen again in October. Maybe they'll get another bail out, certainly sooner or later they'll go to the well to find it empty and Greece will have option but default. Or, parliament will vote down the austerity measures, the government will resign, but it doesn't matter because whoever takes their place will be in exactly the same situation and Greece will default.

The powers that be in the EU and the IMF will argue this is not the case until the cows come home but it is utterly predictable in its inevitability.

But what is it the Greek public want?

Well, here are the stats Sky are running in their report on Greece:

• The average retirement age in Greece is 61 - but millions of workers in public and private sectors retire at 50. (Life expectancy - 79)
• Whilst paying out pensions, the Greek government has failed to generate incomes to cover this cost. Tax evasion seems to be a national sport. Only 5,000 Greeks declare an income of over €100k (£89k). Self declared income is rarely challenged and loses the Greek economy an estimated £13bn a year.

So, the Greeks are out on the street demonstrating against increases in taxes nobody pays, an increase in the retirement age which is ignored by over 10 years at any rate, and a cut in spending which, as the current situation shows, even with large reductions already put in place, the Greeks haven't a hope of funding anyway.

So what do the Greeks want? Well, I can draw only one conclusion; they want to continue retiring at 50 on a state pension, pay no tax, have all their services and have somebody else pay for it.

Well, you know what?

Fuck you.

This isn't the fault of greedy bankers, corrupt politicians or evil big business. This is your fault. Oh granted the politicians made the pension laws, they spent the cash, they didn't collect the taxes, but who put them there? You did. Did you not think at any point 'there's something wrong here, I'm only paying €100 tax a year, how can we afford this?'

And then complacently and selfishly you came up with the answer. 'You'll pay for it.'

Did you really think your EU masters would just hand over the cash without condition? Fools. They own you now. Protest all you like. Burn your cities to the ground for all I care, it will make no difference. Your politicians will continue to pass laws, but they've yet to enforce any of the fiscal laws they put in place thus far, why would they start now? Either the IMF, ECB or EU will slam the door shut, or the market will. Why the hell should I pay for your laziness and greed?

That being said, you also have my thanks, because your actions appear to have holed this horrible, authoritarian, corrupt and greedy European project below the waterline. Let's hope the hull breach expands further.

Well, you asked for it.

Hey, you. Yes, you! Want a tenner?

It's yours. Well, it's not yours, but you can have it. You deserve it.

Of course what you don't realise is that the tenner I'm giving you is actually yours. It was to start with, what I've done is promised everyone a tenner, but some people don't have a tenner to start with, so in order to give everyone a tenner I have to take a tenner and a fiver from those who do have the cash to start with.

People like getting tenners. Because people like it so much, they vote for me. They still haven't realised that it was their tenner in the first place.

I've had an idea. Perhaps if I promise people two tenners, more of them would vote for me. Hmmm, yes, I like that. What do I care that I actually don't have all these tenners? What do I care that if you add up all the tenners in the country, it doesn't actually equal all the tenners I've promised to shell out? By the time everyone's realised what's happened, I'll have stepped down or been kicked out in favour of the bloke who has promised everyone three tenners.

All of a sudden, all the people I borrowed tenners from to give to you, on the promise of them getting their tenners back, plus a fiver, based on the fact that the magic money pixie will pay a visit, want their tenners back.

Oh dear. I've got no tenners.

All of a sudden people are getting angry. The people I borrowed the tenners from are asking 'where's my bloody tenner?' All the people I promised tenners to are asking 'where's my bloody tenner? You told me it was mine. I demand my tenner, or I'm going to smash the place up. My tenner, my tenner, you said, miiiiiiiiiiine!'

But you know what? Here's the really good bit. All those tenners I borrowed? I didn't borrow them in my name, oh no, I borrowed them in yours. Clever, isn't it?

And then, and then, when everyone gets really cross, I get together with all the other tenner promisers and set up a unity government. What this means is that all the people who were promised tenners will be faced with a choice at the next election of voting for someone who promised them a tenner, can't deliver on that promise and wants them to pay two tenners for the tenner that they gave their dad, or for someone who promised them a tenner, can't deliver on that promise and wants them to pay two tenners for the tenner that they gave their dad.

OK, it may not be me, but it will be one of my friends that wins, and we are all friends really, even if we pretend we're not.

Tenners all round!

Greece really is screwed.

What happens when they've sold everything?

The European Central Bank said on Thursday it opposed forcing private creditors to take part in debt relief for Greece, pushing back against Germany, which has demanded a bond swap to lengthen Greek debt maturities.

Errrrm. . .

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signalled the hard line at the bank's monthly news conference, as new figures from Athens showed the Greek economy shrank by 5.5 percent in the first quarter of the year, a far sharper rate than expected.

5.5%? 5.5 bloody percent? Sweet Mary, mother of Jesus and all the baby orphans. Can you imagine the triumphalism if our economy managed to grow by that much in one quarter? 5.5% is a bloody catastrophe.

The data cast fresh doubt on Greece's ability to meet targets for cutting its budget deficit, part of a 110 billion euro (97.6 billion pound) bailout agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May last year.

I'm not bloody surprised, the country is bleeding to death. How on Earth have they ended up being down so much that even almost £100bn gifted to them doesn't solve the problem?

The EU is now considering another aid package for Athens, and euro zone sources told Reuters on Thursday the new deal would total about 120 billion euros, with the EU and IMF providing up to half of that sum and the rest coming from Greek privatisation revenues and private creditors.

So that totals £200bn give or take. That is an unimaginable figure. It's all very well talking about privatisation revenues, but does the Greek government (and by that we really should say the Greek people) own assets amounting to £50bn? Even if they did, how would they ever expect to reach that revenue total given that the whole thing promises to be a fire sale of epic proportions?

Moody's Investors Service warned a Greek default could impact the ratings of Ireland and Portugal, the two other euro zone countries that have required bailouts.

So if the Greek people dig their heels in, they could bring down Ireland and Portugal? Bloody hell.

The ECB, the European Commission and countries including France have warned against any Greek debt restructuring that involves coercion of investors, for fear that it could alarm markets and spread contagion to bigger members of the euro zone such as Spain.

And Italy, and probably everybody else involved in the currency.

Greece has to default, it is the only way they stand a chance to recover. Voluntary bankruptcy is often held up as a (last resort) solution to personal financial ills, but surely it is better than lying in the gutter with the rats feeding on your still warm corpse?

They have to pull the plug. They have to wipe the slate clean, they have to re-introduce their own currency, a currency which will make Greece so much more attractive to tourists and importers of produce, they simply cannot survive in this millpond with the grinding stone hanging around their neck, they will drown.

Look, I want the Euro to collapse, I want the hateful, horrible and corrupt EU to disappear, but bloody hell, no-one deserves this. Unfortunately I fear it will be an oft-repeated sight as the lights in the Eurozone wink out one by one, and a whole continent of people will be reduced to penury. It will stand as a monument to the vanity and arrogance of the EUrocrat class that have the gall to demand still more of our produce is poured down their throats.


The Greeks, already poor, will be impoverished, whilst their 'betters' vote themselves bigger expense payments, higher wages and ever more extravagant largesse. For shame.


Can we leave yet?

For shame.    

Grab the popcorn, the main feature is about to begin.

The cracks started to show a while ago, over the winter the rain got into the cracks and expanded them as it froze. Now spring is here and the seeds have germinated, the weeds are now working their way into the body of the edifice, increasing the damage.

The euro has fallen by more than 1% against the dollar, following a report that Greece had raised the possibility of leaving the single currency.

I'll bet the EUrocrats are furious. How dare they? After all the effort they went to in cosseting the entitled Greeks, so helplessly addicted to public cash. They pumped millions into the country and all they asked for in return was complete control of a formerly sovereign country and the population therein.

The claim was vigorously denied by Greece and Germany.

Because in this alliance of equals, Germany calls the shots. It is Frank to Greece's Sammy Jr.

However it was later confirmed that ministers from five eurozone countries were meeting in Luxembourg.

The countries - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece - were said to be discussing EU issues, including the financial situation of Portugal, Ireland and Greece. 

So Germany have the money, France don't have it but want it, because they are utterly addicted as well, Italy are wobbling, Spain is almost on its knees and Greece are as done as a Christmas turkey.

Nice to see they've had the good manners to invite Ireland and Portugal along. They're sitting there discussing them like parents summoned to the headmaster's office to discuss their childrens' under achievement and disruptive behaviour.

After the talks the Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker issued a categorical denial that Greece's euro status was up for debate. 

"We have not been discussing the exit of Greece from the euro area, this is a stupid idea, it is in no way... an avenue we would never take," Reuters reported him as saying.

"We don't want to have the euro area exploding without reason.

What, like the fact they are totally bankrupt, liable to default on their loans and are economically incompatible with the single currency, always were and were always known to be? Is that not a good enough reason?

Let us not forget, this is the BBC, so nothing is as clear as it seems:

Over the past decade the Greek government borrowed heavily - public spending soared and money flowed out of the government's coffers. 

Which is a bad thing, right? Because I've heard precious little criticism from the BBC over the identical policy followed by Labour.

No. Obviously it isn't a bad thing.

However, the revenues the government generated through tax were not enough to counterbalance this, mainly as a result of widespread income tax evasion.

How dare these people undermine the manifest destiny of the political class by not handing over their cash to fund the insane programmes of government spending? Bad Greeks, naughty Greeks.

If the Greeks pull out, I'll bet the Portuguese and Irish will follow. Then a number of the smaller states will think 'why are we bothering'? You can't have a federal Europe without a uniform currency. Let us hope that Greece default and pull out. Then they can set their own rates, make more money from their tourism industry where visitors are paying in a currency which is attractive for them to use, rather than the expensive Euro. C'mon Greece, pretend the Euro is the Persians, bloody stand up for yourselves.

As an aside, and with reference to the image above, what sort of person commissions a statue of a symbol of a currency? Can you imagine the howls from the left and Grauniadistas if a big £ was put on a plinth outside the Bank of England? How very vulgar and crass.

Don't mention the debt!

Let us suppose that after paying your national insurance, income tax, council tax, fuel tax, tax on that tax, insurance premium tax, road tax, value added tax and any other tax you can think of, that you've got a few quid left over that hasn't been swallowed up.

Let us suppose for a minute that you decide to invest that money somewhere.

Let us suppose for a moment longer that you've spent the last two years living under a log, delivering diversity training to a family of woodlice, and haven't really been paying attention to what's been going on.

So you scrape your few quid together and you seek the advice of someone who, you hope, has a decent idea of what he's talking about, what's hot and what's not. You rock up at his office and state that you'd been thinking of investing the cash into government bonds. Greek government bonds.

Assuming your chap isn't a complete mouth breathing simpleton, you'd expect him to say something along the lines of 'that's probably not a great idea, interest rates are through the roof on Bubble Bonds at the moment, it represents a great return if those bonds are honoured, but I'm concerned that the Greek government will default. It's a high risk investment, and I'd advise against it.'

You'd hope, wouldn't you?

However, it would seem that if your man does this, he's going to find himself in a spot of hot water. . .

The Greek authorities have asked Interpol to question a London trader over an email he sent which talked of the high chance of a Greek default.

The email, published in a Greek newspaper, refers to "increased noise" over a Greek debt restructuring as early as Easter.

Greece is highly sensitive to allegations it may not stick to strict repayment terms on its recent bail-out.

Sensitive? It is one bottle of ouzo away from not being able to cover the bonds. We're talking serious bankruptcy here. We're talking taking a hammer to the piggy bank and finding a button, an old washer and an escudo which is worth only slightly more than a drachma. When it goes down, they're going be broker than the brokest thing you can think of, and we're going to have to pay for it. They're sensitive? Well excuse me, I wouldn't want to hurt your feelings. Hang on, my chequebook's here, how much do you want?

The finance ministry says the incident amounts to "possible criminal conduct".

Really? Under what law? The we must never upset the broke bubbles act? Jesus H Christ on a little purple tricycle with a bell and hi-viz jacket.

Greece's Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou insisted on Wednesday that Greece could deal with its debt mountain. 

Oh well, that's fine then. What was I concerned about?

Tell the truth and say that you're concerned about someone not paying a debt, in an email, and Interpol get called in? They really are madder than Mad Stavros Theopopodopoloopyous, winner of Greece's maddest man competition.

The One That Is Looking Through The Cracks. . .

The usual preface when I start writing about finance: I am no economist. It is highly likely I’ve misunderstood some painfully dull yet hugely important item of detail in this little bunfight. If that is so, then I apologise.

Anyhow, a couple of interesting articles yesterday and today in the Torygraph.

The first details Greece’s efforts to deal with their profligacy of the last decade, and could easily be held up as a mirror to what is going on here. The second is about an attempt by some German academics to stop a shed load of their money heading east to prop up this land of retirement at 61 with a national pension pegged at 95% of earnings.

The first article raises an interesting conundrum:

One option would be to follow the example of Britain, which managed to erode much of its debt by allowing the pound to fall by a quarter. If the powers-that-be in Frankfurt were persuaded to allow the entire euro to fall enough, thus driving up inflation in Germany, they could avoid both Greek default and the break-up of the currency. This would right the balance between the two countries (in Germany prices are too low, in Greece they are too high, and producers too uncompetitive). The problem, again, is the scale: the euro would have to more than halve in value and Germans would have to accept inflation of around 14 per cent for five years to make the adjustment. Not something politically feasible given the country’s history of hyperinflation.

A point occurs to me, aren’t there about two dozen other countries using the Euro beyond Greece and Germany? What do they think about this idea of allowing the value of the currency to fall by up to 50%?

And here is the problem with the EU in general and the Euro in particular, what might suit urbanised and industrial northern Europe is certainly not what is wanted in rural agrarian southern Europe.

What if these German professors manage to get the plug pulled on the Greeks? What if the Portuguese who also seem to be teetering on the brink finally slip into the abyss? What then? The economic weaknesses of two small peripheral economies could drag down the economies in Italy, France, Netherlands and Germany. Millions upon millions of people with savings and pensions wiped out, because of the inefficiencies, and certainly in the case of the Greeks, corruption of one constituent part of the grand project.

Many would argue that is a good case in support of centralised cross-continental economic policy, but heaven knows it is hard enough to deal with the geo-financial inequalities in the UK, let alone those spread over a whole continent.

I can only imagine what the fallout of the collapse of the Euro would be. One thing is for certain, it would be huge blow to the EU project, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the empire builders are determined to create a single pan-continental nation in their own image, we have a flag, an anthem (of sorts), a parliament (of sorts), a President (supposedly) and a currency. If the currency were to wink out of existence then it would make it very hard to continue to persuade people that a single nation is possible and sustainable.

Secondly, such a collapse would most likely lead to a number of the current member states questioning why they are in the project. The public of France, Germany and Italy are quite rightly going to ask why their financial wellbeing has been wiped out by this country that has brought nothing to the party. Unlike in the UK where we just mumble and write letters to The Mail (and blogs), the French and the Italians especially would be out on the streets, demanding change and bringing their countries to a grinding halt until they get the changes they want. The politicians would have no option but to give in. The smaller, less economically secure nations are likely to look at the big players and wonder what the point is if they don’t come to their aid, rather than looking out for themselves.

Those countries not in the Eurozone are well out of it, as it is possible we could be spared the worst, should the worst happen.

One thing is beyond doubt, empires always fall. They always have, they always will. It is only human arrogance and hubris which declares thousand year reichs and the like. They all fall. Whether it is because the empire crumbles because the military muscle isn’t there to keep the regions in line or defended (Romans, Soviet Union) or because it is politically and/or financially impossible to keep it running (British, Soviet Union), they all fall. The EU will be no different, and in my opinion will come to an end sooner rather than later. One can’t help the feeling that critical mass was reached some time ago and that the chain reaction is now well in motion, the result of that is certain.

POST SCRIPT

I’ll take this opportunity to add my voice to the myriad of those expressing their sadness at the revision of the Devil’s Kitchen. I’m not surprised that Brillo took the tack he did, it’s par for the course when a small party gets shoved into the spotlight, it’s normally little more than a freak show where the worldly wise can roll their eyes at the nutter.

The fact that Chris was attacked over his blog, rather than his policy I think speaks volumes about the latter rather than the former. In an election where no-one knows who they want to win, but everyone wants them all to lose, I feel it is important to take the opportunity now to show you are really, properly, different to everyone else. DK’s blog was a fine outlet for that, and it was reading him and Leg-Iron that motivated me to do this blogging lark for myself.

My advice, for what it is worth, should you ever read this Chris, is dare to be different. Show how angry we are. Show we’re not afraid to use the occasional naughty word. Show that we attack people and policy because it is the right thing to do, not the expected thing to do. Attack without mercy and without fear of reprisal. Show that people can look as long and as hard at us as they wish, for we believe in what we say, we do not say what we think people wish to believe.

Polarise opinion, stand out. If people do not agree with us, then that’s fine. The trick is to persuade more people to agree with us than disagree. If we can’t, well, that’s democracy. I’d hate for us and for you to become conformist.

The One That Hopes It May Be A Glimpse Of Light At The End Of The Tunnel. . .

"The country doesn't have a government to protect it," he said. "Citizens are experiencing a multiple crisis: a social crisis, a crisis of values. People have lost trust in the government."

Where is this?

Zimbabwe? Britain?

"We won't show any leniency," he said. "No one has the right to use this tragic incident as an excuse for acts of violence. At this critical time, the political world must unite to condemn those responsible for this disaster and isolate them."

Myanmar? India?

It is unclear what measures the government is considering after a third night of chaos in Greek cities after the death of 15-year-old Alexandros Grigoropoulos on Saturday.

Oh. Greece.

A very interesting article in the Grauniad (brought to my attention by EU Referendum) contains what I think is a startling passage of text given the publication it is in:

With many struggling to make ends meet, and one in five living below the poverty line, there is growing anger at the tough fiscal policies of a government determined to reach the prescriptive benchmarks set out by Brussels and rein in budget deficits. The disaffection has been exacerbated by allegations of corruption and a series of scandals implicating members of Karamanlis's inner circle.

I've always tried to avoid the Guardian, it is just as sanctimonious as the Daily Distress and the Daily Fail but people seem to give it more credence as it is printed on big paper. That being said, I've noticed a wavering of their stance during recent weeks, especially in their online content. Because I'm a masochistic old sod I listen to Victoria Derbyshire's phone in show in the mornings on BBC Radio 5, normally I have to turn it off after a while because it fills me with rage and despair in equal measure, but again over the past few months I've noticed more and more people espousing the sort of policies that sit very comfortably with a Libertarian agenda.

There's a big difference between people wanting the same as us and 'connecting' with us, I suspect the reflex action will be to vote Tory to kick this lot out, then a good number will realise they've voted for more of the same and will go back to Labour. We could be in for a spell of electoral tennis, but the seeds have been planted and are starting to germinate. What is even more encouraging is that due to the Libertarian's limited resources we can't really claim credit for it, these ideas are being formed independently of us, something which is sure to send panic through the big three once they cotton on.

EU Referendum says:

"Fear and despair are what these riots are about," the Guardian piece ends. This may not be simply riots we are seeing. This could be revolution – the revolt of the masses against the corrupt élites.

It is possible that is the case, but I doubt it. Revolution is very nearly always a counter productive thing, it is divisive and normally ends in an extended period of blood letting. That is never good inspite of what righteous devotees of whichever creed has taken over will claim. Proper change is evolutionary rather than revolutionary and is much more stable. However if the causes behind the civil unrest in Greece are as the Graun claim, it could very well be the catalyst to a gentle revolution of people rejecting the centralist, power stripping and authoritarian patterns of the EU and major party politics over Europe and putting themselves in power rather than the platitude mouthing professional political class.

Now that would be a good thing.